Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.