From Grudging Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fueled a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”